The new MP- Bob Seely … his thoughts on a Link.

Newly elected in 2017 – Bob Seely opposes a Fixed Link …. according to his web site. 

He has also described the idea as “Airy Fairy”.

Just as the previous MP – Andrew Turner had remonstrated against a Link for 16 years, the new MP is now taking a similar unfortunate and unresearched stance. The previous MP did eventually come to his senses…. realising that attempting to regulate the ferries is a futile waste of precious time.

During January 2018 Bob Seely proposed a “Call for public service Ferries”.  The ferry companies have no obligations of service and will therefore demand British taxpayer subsidies for perpetuity, to support the company shareholder dividends. To quote from the article below:

Kevin George, Red Funnel’s chairman and chief executive, said: “If the government is prepared to subsidise services that support a service obligation then we would be happy to review such a scheme. However, without such funding the idea of a service obligation or regulation is in reality a hollow promise.”

A spokesman for Hovertravel said: “We are more than willing to work with the local MP to explore how increased funding and support can be used to assist the Isle of Wight.”

PRO-LINK is hopeful that once the new MP has researched the predicament the island is in, he will agree that emulating Andrew Turners previous emotive stance, will cause the island even more harm. PRO-LINK is hoping that the new MP will behave logically, rather than emotively. However, a close relative of Bob Seely – Patrick Seely, is now on the board of Directors at Red Funnel, which may cause a conflict of interest through collusion, if the MP decides to seek government funded subsidies? In 2014, Patrick Seely led a consortium to take over Wightlink.

Bob Seely / MP / Solent Freedom Tunnel
Andrew Turner tried this for 16 years and failed… but what good would it do anyway?… Click Here. To view reaction … Click Here.

Similar to the previous MP, he will eventually concede that the only way to break the institutionalised ‘Duopoly’ of the ferry companies, is to introduce competition that offers fast and immediate, 24hr/365day, affordable freedom of cross Solent transport. The Fixed Link Tunnel will not require subsidies and will in point of fact, provide revenue for UK PLC.

Bob Seely - IOW MP / Solent Freedom Tunnel
Bob Seely

The ‘IOW Transport Infrastructure Taskforce’ was commissioned by the IOW Council via central government funding, to undertake a comprehensive study of cross Solent transport. The conclusions were clear… the report recommended that Fixed Link Study must be undertaken. Since then, the IOW Council have also confirmed support of a Study, joining Christopher Garnett OBE who chaired the Taskforce along with several major island stakeholders. All islander surveys and polls are in favour of a fixed link.

PRO-LINK believes that Ignoring the “Elephant in the room” subject of Fixed Link cross Solent Transport, is a serious deroliction of the MPs’ duty and disrespectful of the constituents wishes. 

 


During October 2017, the new MP was interviewed by Anne Lovelock of Sunshine Radio. These excerpts below explain his ideas for the island without a Fixed Link, which he explains may take perhaps 15 years to take effect.

 

Bob talks about his unsuccessful campaign to be an MP in Nottinghamshire in 2005, before his chance on the island.

 

 

 

Bob explains how long he has been a resident of the Isle of Wight.

 

 

 

Bob explains that he would prefer to extend the unsustainable (losing £5million p/a) Island Line railway to Ventnor and Newport. He also explains how he’s not concentrating on becoming a government minister.

 

 

 

Bob explains how he thinks his personal passion for the arts, will regenerate the island.

 

 

 

Bob explains how he spends his time giving lectures about his passion…. the arts.

 

 

 

Bob explains how he thinks art and ‘mindfulness’ will solve the problems of cross Solent healthcare.

 

 

 

Bob explains his ideas on future housing on the island.

 

 

 

Bob explains that he’s never been to an IOW festival, but how he’d like to bring the Bestival back to the island, knowing that existing cross Solent Transport caused its loss. He also explains that the ferries are expensive, but isn’t aware of how to tackle that. Bob also claims the Fixed Link “ain’t gonna happen“, but declines to give any reasons why that should be so?

 

 

 

Bob explains his ideas on how to contain island students on the island for University education, disregarding the expense and time consuming cross Solent Transport. He also explains that the Island has the cheapest housing in the South of England but declines to explain that it is caused through the island being an isolated and deprived area.

 

 

 

And finally, Bob explains the he may need at least 15 years to have these plans potentially succeed……

 

 

 

With the evidence provided, PRO-LINK believes that the MP is uncompromisingly deluded. The belief is that policies generated through a personal passion for the arts and unwillingness to accept the benefits of fixed link connectivity, will be a disaster for the island in the 21st century. The MP appears to be wilfully ignoring the “Elephant in the room”. 

 

Bob Seely IOW MP
“Bobs’ Vlog” explains his policies on transport, housing and healthcare on the island…. while not mentioning the cross Solent transport issues at all. Click here to watch the video

 

Foe the ex MP – Andrew Turners’ previous and present day thoughts on a fixed link … Click here

 


Bob was interviewed by IOW Radio on the 24th Nov 2017.
 
This is what he had to say about the campaign for a fixed link and the ferries.
Bob Seely MP. IOW Radio interview
Click the picture to go to the interview video… Or here
The Facebook group reaction to the interview can be seen   …. Here

Subsequent to the interview and after a week long investigation, Lucy Morgan (programme manager) made it clear that no IOW Radio staff member had been abused by PRO-LINK or Carl Feeney. Carl Feeney was advised by Lucy to ask Mr Seely why he would have made such a defamatory statement, as she had no idea? 

Footnote: On the 12th December 2017, Carl Feeney questioned Bob Seely in person in Westminster at Portcullis House, regarding the matter above. The conversation was a heated exchange. Bob Seely conceded that the allegation of abuse could not be corroborated by any named person when pressed. At that stage Mr Seely was presented with the fact that the allegations in his IOW Radio interview were fabrications designed to discredit Carl Feeney and the Fixed Link Campaign. Mr Seely was unable to refute that statement. He is certainly free to comment on this further if he wishes. 


 

REPORT ON THE PRO-LINK and ABLE CONNECTIONS LTD MEETING WITH BOB SEELY on 12th December 2017.

Having read Mr Seelys reasons against a fixed link prior to the meeting at Westminster, Able Connections Ltd formulated a response to present to the MP at Westminster:

“Cost

The first objection is that it will “cost vast sums of money,” saying that “the Island cannot afford it.” The ferry companies turned over more than £110m last year. That clearly represents that the Solent economy can afford to spend enormous sums of money crossing the water. Our forecasts, carried out in accordance with Department for Transport requirements, show that it would require only a 60% increase in cross-Solent people movements to generate sufficient revenue to pay back construction costs within 20 years. We believe therefore that the scheme is affordable. We have worked with KPMG’s Deal Advisory team to understand how the scheme might be funded and financed. We believe that there is a range of possible financial mechanisms which align very closely with Government objectives.

The cost is large – £3Bn – and it is right that it is hard to justify spending this much money on a population the size of the Isle of Wight. However the benefits of the scheme extend across the whole Solent region, including the deprived areas around Gosport and the industrial and commercial centres around Park Gate and Whiteley. Furthermore, the tunnel is not the only item of infrastructure proposed for the Solent region. Significant enhancements are being considered to develop tram and rapid bus services. The tunnel is complementary to these schemes; it makes them more deliverable and it increases their benefits once built. It also unlocks land for housing on the mainland. When considered in the context of the current plans for the Solent region and the population served, we believe that the cost is proportionate.

Island infrastructure

The second objection is that the Island’s “19th century infrastructure would not be able to cope with the inevitable increase in traffic”.

In order to address this, it is helpful first to consider what the Island will look like in 20 years time without the tunnel. The current forecasted population growth on the Isle of Wight (without the tunnel) is around 10,000 – 15,000 people over the next twenty years, almost exclusively in the over 65s. This will happen because cheaper housing makes the Island an attractive place to retire to and because people are living longer. It will impact Island infrastructure in different ways. We have sufficient schools and healthcare facilities; the sewers do not need major upgrade; our energy could probably do with being greener, but there is no threat to our supplies from the mainland, and our broadband works. Indeed we believe that most of the Island’s infrastructure could cope with the forecast increase in population. The infrastructure which will be put under strain by this population growth (which will happen without the tunnel) is housing and transportation. The Isle of Wight Council is currently developing plans for additional housing which distribute developments over the whole Island. These are not sufficient to meet demand and further development will be required. Recent housing developments and those which are coming forward are all car-centric, and the Council has no plans for additional public transport. Indeed it does not even propose to update its highway forecasts until 2019 at the earliest. We believe that this is too late and urge you to apply pressure to the council to accelerate this important work.

The true statement about infrastructure is that in 20 years’ time, the Island’s “19th century” transportation infrastructure will not be able to cope with the forecast population growth, period. Worse, because of the demographics of the growth, there is unlikely to be sufficient economic growth to pay for any enhancements.

The tunnel proposal is an improvement on current plans for a number of reasons.

1. It includes proposals for public transport, extending many miles from the tunnel portals on both the mainland and Island sides. This will mitigate many of the highway impacts of population growth by providing viable alternatives to private car use, even for highway trips which do not use the tunnel. Future autonomous electrically powered vehicles, will not be encumbered by ferry mode cross Solent transport. 

2. We welcome the opportunity to engage with the council about how this project will allow them to develop housing schemes which are well-integrated with public transport and which will therefore generate fewer trips than would be the case under current plans.

3. It will stimulate economic growth, leading to more revenue to the council to provide services.

The pressure on the Island’s transport infrastructure is going to increase as its population grows. We believe that the tunnel allows us to manage that growth in a way which gives better outcomes than current plans.

Development Pressure.

The tunnel will allow the Island to meet its housing needs in a more sustainable way than current plans. However we do not accept the assertion that the tunnel means the Island will be subjected to overwhelming pressure to accept housing from Hampshire. The Solent authorities are planning a major new development at Welbourne, north of Fareham. Let us take the view that this is the land facing most development pressure in the region and compare it to the Island. The cost of getting to the Isle of Wight (combined time and fares) means that land on the Island is currently less accessible from Welbourne than Royal Leamington Spa. The tunnel will bring it closer, but not to the extent that it faces pressure to become a dormitory suburb. For commuters it will become as accessible as land in west of Salisbury, and for businesses it will become as accessible as land around Basingstoke. In other words, we believe that the proposed tunnel with its relatively high toll will bring the Island the best of both worlds; businesses get closer and more efficient, but the demand for land for housing becomes no greater than is felt by the rest of the south coast.

Loss of services.

It is disingenuous to claim that improved connectivity will result in a loss of services. No school or supermarket or GP or restaurant or theatre or police station or cinema or fire station on the Island is going to close as a result of the fixed link. These services generally rely on their proximity to the people they serve, and are often ideally planned within walking distance. Indeed, by its very nature the fixed link will increase the services available to Islanders by allowing them to access services not currently available on the Island.

There are two services which may be affected. The first is St Mary’s Hospital. Planning for St Mary’s lays outside the scope of work that Able Connections can undertake, but as part of the wider conversation about the impact of the tunnel we welcome a conversation about how we can retain the benefits of St Mary’s (such as A&E, maternity care and local support for minor operations), whilst being honest about its failings (such as the struggle to retain talented junior staff, and the many problems that arise from patients having to go to Southampton or Portsmouth via ferry or helicopter for major surgery). The successful community hospital in Lymington is a very attractive model for what could be achieved. We believe that you will have an opportunity to talk about the Fixed link implications to Steve Parker – Medical Director next week when also discussing ‘acute service redesign’

The second service which may be affected is retail facilities. Different retailers will be affected in different ways. The tunnel will not greatly affect access to the retail parks at Gunwharf and West Quay, as these are in the city centres where they will continue to be most easily accessed by the passenger ferries, and so will be no more competition than they are today. Access to the superstores at Whiteley will improve, and this might affect trade at superstores (electrical goods, carpets, furniture, cars etc).  We believe that by making the Island more accessible to destination shoppers in south Hampshire, the link will benefit retail in the Island’s villages. These shops tend to be independently owned, and the money spent in them is more likely to stay in the economy, bringing even wider benefits to the Island.

Environment

Finally, although not numbered as one of the objections, there is reference to the detrimental environmental impact of the tunnel. “Environment” covers many different things, and schemes need to be assessed both for their construction and their operation. We summarise here the main impacts of the scheme, which we believe will give a net benefit to the environment when compared against the “do-nothing” scenario.

CO2. The tunnel will be constructed using concrete and this will generate carbon emissions but will have a life of 100 years+. In operation it will require power to operate lights and ventilation, which will generate emissions until renewables become more commonplace. It will support a vastly expanded public transport network which will reduce congestion on major roads, reducing carbon emissions. The net effect of these needs to be assessed but we believe it will show a net operational reduction in CO2 emissions in the Solent region when compared with a do-nothing scenario.

Habitat. The tunnel portals and access roads shall be constructed in made and agricultural ground and will result in very little loss of habitat. Further studies are needed to define the northern portal with the M27, and environmental considerations will form a major part of how options are assessed. The need for ventilation shafts also needs to be determined, and certain configurations may require shafts in the Solent which will disrupt the seabed. However, this particular scenario may be negated due to the advent of low emission vehicles. The spoil from the tunnel can be cleaned and used to construct new wildlife mudflats. The tunnel will provide access to land for housing which is integrated with transport and therefore allows more sustainable land use for both housing and transport.

Air Quality and Noise. A twin-bore, dual-carriageway configuration of tunnel would remove 15-20% of the HGVs from the centres of Southampton and Portsmouth. By enabling an expanded public transport network all configurations, it will reduce congestion on major roads, which brings air quality and low noise benefits. By placing growth in highway trips in a tunnel we reduce highway noise in the region.

Construction Impacts. The proposed construction methodology minimises the number of HGV movements generated by the scheme to the extent that we aspire to send no spoil by road. The major tunnelling work takes place away from homes and should not generate significant levels of discernible noise.

Heritage. We are not aware of any impact on any scheduled monument or site of archaeological importance affected by the works.”

_________________________________

The Able Connections Ltd Letter to Bob Seely, after the meeting on the same day:

Dear Bob,
 
Thank you for a very productive meeting, and for giving us so much of your valuable time. It was good to hear about your plans for the Island and to find so much common ground between us. The Island is an amazing place and all four of us round the table shared a commitment to working to preserve and enhance its many assets. We attach a copy of the document we left with you. We’ll tidy it up and then publish it via the ProLink Facebook page and Solent Freedom Tunnel website as a direct response to the comments on your website. This conversation is important and it needs to happen in public. We all agree that it should be conducted without recourse to any of the fallacies which mar serious debate – so no ad hominem attacks and no straw-men. If you feel we’ve made those or any other errors, please let us know.
 
We touched on a few points which we think are worth documenting;
1.    Any feasibility study needs to be properly engaged with stakeholders in the region. Simply saying “go away and do your study” is just another way of shutting the door. No one, private or public, is going to fund a study without suitable governance or engagement from public bodies. Once in place, these governance arrangements do not need to be a major drain on your time, but as MP we trust you agree that you have an interest in ensuring that they function transparently and that the feasibility study takes account of all the issues which you feel need to be addressed. However we would go further. Neither of us can set out our case for the future vision of the Island without first establishing the “do-nothing” scenario if we allow current trends to continue. Without this evidence base both your manifesto and our proposals will be meaningless. The interests of Able Connections and yourself, at least for this first step, are completely aligned. I hope this is something you and I can discuss further in the new year, perhaps with Dave Stewart.
 
2.    The Gurit story is misleading. In a functioning economy, companies come and go for all sorts of reasons, so demonstrating that Gurit’s departure is not caused by a lack of connectivity proves nothing. The relevant story is “my colleagues” story. Fifteen years ago, two of my school friends and I, cut adrift from GKN, could not establish our separate businesses on the Island but prospered on the mainland. Those bright young islanders cut adrift from Gurit today will do exactly the same and the Island will suffer. Lack of connectivity is a major part of this story.
 
3.    We agree that future housing on the island needs to be high density (to minimise land take) and integrated with public transport (to minimise highway impacts).
 
4.    We hinted at a useful distinction between a viability study and a feasibility study which is worth making explicit. A viability study would demonstrate that there are sufficient trips to generate income to pay the capital costs. It would need to be sophisticated enough to take account of transport, population and land-use changes and the many ways these interact with one another. Fortunately the Solent subRegional Transport Model (SRTM), operated by Systra on behalf of Hampshire CC, is designed for this purpose. It’s structure and operation is based on the work I led for TfL which is now used for all major development planning in London, and Systra were one of the major suppliers. We have scoped this work with them and it could be done for under £100k. Once we have established that the commercials stack up, a feasibility study would need to look at how we join everything together (precisely where do we allow development and how much; where does the bus go; do we carry freight; ); how the economy grows; how we capture a proportion of that growth to fund the capital costs through things like a TIF or land value capture vehicle; what configuration the tunnel takes and the associated construction costs. This is a much more extensive piece of work and would cost around £1m.
We’ll close simply by repeating the sentiment from our earlier email. It is a pleasure to have an MP who appreciates the challenges and opportunities which arise from the uniqueness of the Island’s representation at Westminster. We very much hope that we will be able to work with you as you seek to preserve and enhance the quality of Island life.
 
Best regards,
 
Tim and Carl
_______________________

 

Bob Seelys response on the 14th December 2017:

Tim, Karl,
 
Hi and thank you for your time, and I hope that we can perhaps now have a constructive dialogue.
I am concerned with the first point you raise.  I think there is a misunderstanding.  Initially, I understood that the ‘understanding’ with the Council was that no one would object to a study into the proposed cost and impact, but that it was going to be organised by yourselves.  In the wording of the document below, you are now saying that I and others need to be actively supportive and part of a process.  That is a very considerable change, both in practical involvement as well as percieved support to the project.  I feel I am being engineered into a position that I am not comfortable with.  You need to be discussing this with the IoW Council and mainland Councils as a first step.  I did make clear that I have limited time, and that, as we both agreemeent, the numbers are not currently there.
I welcome your thoughts on the above.  I am aware that there is room for nuance.
I have talked already to the Sec of State Transport.  He has questioned whether there could be funding this year, he believes it unlikely, and suggested that even at a very initial stage, the Treasury would need to be involved.  I will take the matter up again in February, but as I made v clear, this project cannot be my priority. 
Kind regards
Bob
_________________________________

The Able Connections Ltd reply to Bob Seely on the 14th December 2017:

“Dear Bob,
As you say, there is room for nuance. We are certainly not trying to engineer anyone into a position they’re not happy with. In fact, I hope it’s the reverse. During a complex study like this, conclusions arise as the work progresses which were not foreseen and which might be objectionable to some parties. The earlier people see the results, the better the opportunity to deal with objections. It is very sad when major schemes have detrimental effects baked into them for no better reason than they were discovered too late to be put right. My motto for stakeholder engagement is “go wide, go early”.
The fixed link will only happen if it is the right thing to do (by which I mean, out of the available responses to the ongoing demographic challenges we face, it is the response which makes the Island most prosperous in a way which best supports and enhances its character). To determine that, we need to proceed with everyone’s involvement. You’ve made a very clear statement on your website the reasons you would object to a fixed link. We will ensure that any study addresses these, but we don’t want you or anyone else to be trapped – you need to have the opportunity to be involved and modify your view as work proceeds. How you choose to do so is your choice, but my point about the need for a better understanding of the do-nothing remains valid and I will continue to seek ways to work with you and the council to establish that common view.
We would welcome the opportunity to meet with Treasury. Is this something you can help facilitate?
best regards,
 
Tim Cooper”
_______________________________
The reply by Bob Seely on 14th December:
Tim,
Re: Treasury.  Not yet. Let’s talk again in late January please.
Bob

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4 thoughts on “The new MP- Bob Seely … his thoughts on a Link.

  1. Christine Sheppard

    Oh dear. What a privileged lifestyle this man has led. He truly has no ideas how the majority of Islanders have to live. He will certainly not solve any of our problems with an art gallery. If his ideas will take about fifteen years that will also be much too late Get out there Bob and speak to the people who you have the privileged opportunity to represent. And do just that represent THEM. At the moment you appear to be way out of touch with our reality.

  2. I like the openness in the approach that the Solent freedom tunnel promoters are adopting. It allows for a proper record of political and economic exchanges. I am slightly dismayed by the approach taken by Bob Seeley which is that I’m too busy to deal with this. This seems to be becoming a theme. We have a strong well led Conservative Council with talented Councillors and a greater openness to embracing development and regeneration projects. I hope that Bob Seeley will embrace a wider range of those talents and others to guide him through his priorities.

  3. Mr Seeley. For an MP that is supposed to represent the Isle of Wight you have a very selfish attitude to the freedom of islanders. Though you don’t live on the island and the freedom tunnel won’t effect you either way. I think you should help this island to grow back into a thriving island. You have shown no support for you constituents and the people that voted for you. What does this island need to do to get your support for us and not self gain.. sorry but it would seem you have become an MP for your own self growth in politics with no consideration for the people your supposed to support. I find this very disappointing in an MP.. you have lost a lot of support here on the Island..,.

  4. Peter J Hesketh-Roberts

    I am a retired Chartered Civil Engineer and have served my profession as a Council Member of the Institution of Civil Engineers and on the committee of the Southern Association of Civil Engineers. I spent three (extremely hard) years working on the Channel Tunnel, which I believe has proved itself to be an invaluable link to the Continent. There are many precedents for the use of a Fixed Link, whether it be a tunnel, a bridge or a combined bridge/tunnel, allowing the engineering decisions on such a design to be confidently made. It may be worth pointing out that the Channel Tunnel is ventilated by forced air using trains themselves to move air along the structure, backed up by fan-blown air along ducts. There is no requirement for ventilation shafts sticking up above the Channel!
    The report by Able Connections Ltd is a well balanced and sensible comment on all of the issues involved which should form the basis of both viability and feasibility studies.
    It is good to note the constructive approach in the discussions and summaries offered by Tim and Carl. So much work has been done and so many issues discussed to prepare the way forward that makes it all the more distressing to note such a negative attitude by the Island’s MP. He has “run scared” from any implication of involvement from supporting a study into the Fixed Link, never mind supporting the link itself.
    It is such a shame that this Member of Parliament does not want to understand one of the most important factors affecting the life of Islanders both now and for the foreseeable future.

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